Glossary
Risk-analysis terms, in plain English.
The vocabulary behind RiskForesight — so risk leads, planners and decision-makers read the same model the same way.
- QRA
- Quantitative Risk Analysis — using probability and ranges (not just a 5×5 matrix) to put numbers on schedule and cost risk.
- QSRA
- Quantitative Schedule Risk Analysis — running the CPM schedule many times with uncertain durations and discrete risks to get a distribution of finish dates.
- ICSRA
- Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis — simulating cost and schedule together so time and money risk are modelled on one run.
- JCL
- Joint Confidence Level — the probability of finishing on or under both a target date and a target cost at the same time.
- Monte Carlo
- A method that samples uncertain inputs thousands of times and aggregates the outcomes into a probability distribution.
- Latin Hypercube Sampling
- A stratified sampling technique that covers the input range more evenly than random sampling, so runs converge with fewer iterations.
- P50 / P80
- Percentile outcomes: P50 is the value with a 50% chance of being met or beaten; P80 is the 80% confidence value often used to set contingency.
- Deterministic
- The single-point plan with no uncertainty — the baseline finish date or cost before risk is applied.
- CPM
- Critical Path Method — the scheduling logic that computes the controlling path and finish date from activity durations and dependencies.
- Critical path
- The chain of activities that determines the project finish. Under risk, the controlling path can change from run to run.
- Beta-PERT
- A smooth three-point distribution (low, most-likely, high) that weights the most-likely value — common for duration uncertainty.
- Triangular
- A simple three-point distribution defined by minimum, most-likely and maximum, with straight sides.
- Trigen
- A triangular variant anchored to percentiles (e.g. 10th/90th) instead of absolute min/max, to avoid over-wide tails.
- Discrete risk
- An event that either happens or not, with a probability and an impact on schedule and/or cost when it occurs.
- Risk calendar
- A time window (weather, seasonal shutdown, blackout) that constrains when work can progress during the simulation.
- Correlation
- A statistical link between uncertain inputs so related tasks move together, producing more realistic joint outcomes.
- Sensitivity
- A measure of how strongly each input drives the output — used to find the few risks that matter most.
- Tornado chart
- A ranked bar chart of the inputs with the largest effect on the P80 outcome, widest bar at the top.
- EMV
- Expected Monetary Value — probability multiplied by impact, used to weigh discrete risks in cost terms.
- Contingency
- The schedule or cost reserve set aside to cover risk — often sized to the P80 minus the deterministic plan.
- DCMA-14
- A 14-point schedule quality standard (logic, leads/lags, float, hard constraints, BEI, CPLI) used to check a schedule before it is trusted.
- Convergence
- The point where adding more iterations no longer meaningfully changes the result — a signal the run is stable.
- Seed / reproducibility
- A fixed random seed makes a run repeatable, producing byte-identical results for audit and review.